Two engines bracket the truth
The rule-based engine runs the plant hour by hour as an operator would, with no foresight. The LP solver runs the same plant knowing the whole year in advance: the best it could do. The real plant lands between the two.
One week, hour by hour · 1–7 April 2024
The example’s feasibility design: 250 MW wind, 200 MWp solar, 20 MW / 80 MWh battery, 150 MW electrolyser, 50 t hydrogen store. The week is the full Monday-to-Sunday week whose wind and solar energy is closest to the median week of the year.
- Wind available
- Solar available
- Electrolyser draw, its 1.5 MW standby included
- Electrolyser size, 150 MW
- Battery
- Hydrogen store
Point at the chart, or focus it and use the arrow keys, to read any hour.
Rule-based engine no foresight · the base case
LP solver perfect foresight · the ceiling
In this week the LP solver makes 10.3% more hydrogen than the rule-based engine (344.7 t against 312.5 t): it empties and refills the battery on 7 of 7 days, where the rule-based engine never lets it fall below 63%.
| Day | Engine | Hydrogen made (t) | Ammonia made (t) | Energy curtailed (MWh) | Battery, lowest to highest (MWh) | Hydrogen store, lowest to highest (t usable) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 1 Apr | Rule-based engine | 53.8 | 259.4 | 380 | 80.0 to 80.0 | 22.8 to 34.1 |
| Mon 1 Apr | LP solver | 56.2 | 315.6 | 196 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 3.4 to 5.2 |
| Tue 2 Apr | Rule-based engine | 45.3 | 232.4 | 1,401 | 50.6 to 80.0 | 17.8 to 35.3 |
| Tue 2 Apr | LP solver | 48.3 | 252.9 | 1,256 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 3.0 to 8.1 |
| Wed 3 Apr | Rule-based engine | 46.5 | 278.2 | 1,255 | 80.0 to 80.0 | 32.3 to 43.5 |
| Wed 3 Apr | LP solver | 53.3 | 293.3 | 950 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 7.5 to 11.1 |
| Thu 4 Apr | Rule-based engine | 41.5 | 254.0 | 1,213 | 80.0 to 80.0 | 21.4 to 34.7 |
| Thu 4 Apr | LP solver | 48.3 | 262.4 | 908 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 7.3 to 11.4 |
| Fri 5 Apr | Rule-based engine | 48.8 | 254.0 | 1,921 | 80.0 to 80.0 | 21.3 to 36.0 |
| Fri 5 Apr | LP solver | 52.7 | 289.8 | 1,688 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 7.9 to 12.1 |
| Sat 6 Apr | Rule-based engine | 23.5 | 216.2 | 260 | 68.2 to 80.0 | 17.1 to 30.2 |
| Sat 6 Apr | LP solver | 30.4 | 180.0 | 6 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 10.3 to 11.9 |
| Sun 7 Apr | Rule-based engine | 53.1 | 200.0 | 1,477 | 80.0 to 80.0 | 14.5 to 34.6 |
| Sun 7 Apr | LP solver | 55.5 | 285.3 | 1,263 | 0.0 to 80.0 | 10.0 to 15.1 |
The whole typical year, the same design · cost of a tonne of ammonia
- Rule-based engine the base case 989 $/t
87,015 t/yr
96 h short of hydrogen - LP solver the ceiling 879 $/t
97,866 t/yr
0 h short of hydrogen
Over the year the same plant makes 87,015 t of ammonia at 989 $/t run by the rules, 96 h below its minimum run for lack of hydrogen, and 97,866 t at 879 $/t run by the solver, never below its minimum run: the first is the base case, the second the ceiling.